A New York Times/Siena College poll* finds that Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump in three key battleground states. The poll has Harris at 50 percent to Trump’s 46 percent in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
This is the first major poll in those key states since Harris replaced President Joe Biden on the Democratic ticket and it reflects a surge in enthusiasm among Democratic and some independent voters.
The Times reports, “Much of the newfound Democratic strength stems from improved voter perceptions of Ms. Harris. Her favorability rating has increased ten percentage points among registered voters in Pennsylvania just in the last month, according to Times/Siena polling.”
Of course, a poll is just a snapshot in time and those numbers are so close, they confirm the race is a toss-up in those states. Still, multiple media reports suggest the shift in the race is getting under Trump’s skin.
That was evident during Trump’s by-invitation-only rambling press conference last week. Axios reports, “Republican sources close to Trump tell us he realizes he needs to bring new focus to a message that can be meandering and self-indulgent.”
Those same Republicans acknowledge the only one who can make that happen is Trump himself. “President Trump knows he’s the only one who can end the media’s honeymoon with Kamala Harris,” a top Trump aide told Axios.
That means Trump must try to focus on the issues of most concern to voters. The Times/Siena poll shows that voters still prefer Trump on the economy and immigration. Re-litigating the 2020 election and characterizing Harris as “not smart” or “incompetent” appeal to Trump’s base, but they do not help him with the remaining undecided voters in battleground states.
But a lot will happen before November. Harris has yet to sit for a tough, long-form interview since assuming the nomination and is sticking with crafted stump speeches. Also, there will be at least one debate, which will draw a huge audience. Either of those events could shift the narrative of the race.
Harris’s choice of Minnesota Governor Tim Walz prompted a flurry of news coverage, just as it did when Trump picked J.D. Vance, but those stories will fade. Voters typically do not make their choice for president based on the running mate.
Trump’s most loyal voters, and West Virginia has a lot of them, will dismiss the Times/Siena poll as “fake news.” They don’t trust the mainstream media and see polls like these as a way news outlets try to bend the race toward their favored candidate.
But plenty of national political correspondents have solid sources in the Trump camp, and they are reporting an increased level of concern. A Trump victory seemed inevitable just a few short weeks ago. However, the race has changed dramatically with the ascension of Harris.
So far, Trump’s strategy of falling back to his greatest hits of grievances is failing.
*(Click here for details from the Times about the poll.)