It is a foregone conclusion that Donald Trump will carry West Virginia in the November General Election and claim our four electoral votes. The MetroNews West Virginia Poll in August had Trump up 27 points over Kamala Harris, 61 percent to 34 percent.
Trump received 68 percent of the vote in the race against Hillary Clinton in 2016 and 69 percent in 2020 against Joe Biden. The results of the previous two presidential elections and the poll indicate Trump will make a clean sweep in West Virginia again this year.
Trump has won all 55 counties in each of the two last elections.
In 2020, Trump received 80 percent or more of the vote in 12 counties, 70 to 79 percent in 33 counties, 60 to 69 percent in six counties and 50 to 59 percent in three counties. Only in Jefferson County did Trump fall short of 50 percent. In Jefferson, he won by a narrow 521 votes, 49.45 percent to 48.21 percent for Biden.
Trump’s margin of victory could be even greater this cycle since the Republican Party’s registration advantage has expanded. Republicans now hold registration advantages in 46 of the 55 counties. Forty-one percent of the state’s voters are registered Republican, 30 percent are Democrats and 25 percent are independent/no party.
The top of the ticket power of Trump creates a pathway for down ballot Republicans. Trump’s popularity here will draw voters to the polls and, if the down ballot candidates are lucky, they will just keep choosing Republican candidates, even if they know little about them.
There is, however, the phenomenon of “down ballot roll-off.” That is where people vote for the top of the ticket and leave the rest of the ballot blank.
Of course, candidates are still in a strategically better position as a down ballot Republican than a Democrat in most precincts. Democrats in Republican-dominated precincts need Trump voters to split their ballot, and that can be a hard sell. That is one of the reasons West Virginia Democrats run on their name while de-emphasizing their party affiliation.
Meanwhile, early voting in West Virginia begins next Wednesday, October 23, and runs through Saturday, November 2. In the last presidential election, over 253,000 West Virginians early voted in person, making up about 30 percent of all votes cast.