Listen to “Show the Math: There Is No TANF Crisis” on Spreaker.
The more one examines the supposed TANF “crisis,” the more it looks like the routine work of reconciling a budget — a forecast — with actual expenses.
That is not a crisis. It is ordinary financial management. Something households, businesses and governments alike must do.
Governor Morrisey first warned in May of what he described as a structural deficit in West Virginia’s TANF programs, placing the gap at roughly $40 million.
Then the state’s school clothing allowance program opened late, much to the disappointment and dumbfounding of legislators on both sides of the aisle. News that the program would close before its scheduled deadline — amid lingering questions about whether all eligible children had been served — only added to the controversy.
The situation has escalated from there, with the administration providing little detailed data to substantiate its claims, despite issuing a lengthy press release and accompanying graphics. See Editor’s Note below. State Treasurer Larry Pack and House Finance Chairman Vernon Criss have both weighed in, casting further doubt on the administration’s narrative.
West Virginians must now consider the evidence in its totality and reach their own conclusions.
These thoughts, offered from one citizen to another, may — or may not — help in that effort.
First, the federal government provides West Virginia with an annual TANF block grant of approximately $110 million. After federally required transfers for social services and certain administrative expenses, approximately $98.8 million remains available. That is the “water” depicted in the graphic released Monday by the governor’s office.
Second, the state must contribute money of its own through what is known as maintenance of effort, or MOE. That contribution is just under $26 million (FY 27 Budget Fund 0403, Appropriation 70700.) Frankly, it is largely omitted from the conversation. Why? Yes, these are state dollars but they still fund TANF — they count.
Third, the Department of Human Services has indicated that West Virginia expects to spend approximately $137 million (Governor’s 8/3 press release) on TANF programs during the current fiscal year.
Now, show the math:
$137 million in projected spending, minus $124.8 million in combined federal and state funding, equals a projected shortfall of just over $12 million.
If the story ended there, West Virginia would have an immediate problem.
But it does not end there.
The state entered the fiscal year with approximately $41 million in previously unspent TANF funds. Use roughly $12 million of that balance to cover the projected gap, and approximately $29 million remains available to meet additional needs during the fiscal year. The $177 million federal authorization allows the executive to tap those unused monies.
This in addition to the option of seeking a supplemental appropriation – it happens often – from the legislature in January, leaving the $41 million untouched.
A crisis is something absent options. Options exist here.
Now, if West Virginia continues spending more annually than it receives, that reserve will eventually reach zero. That is simple arithmetic. But by the administration’s own estimate, that will not happen for another 13 months.
And 13 months means time — time to examine every TANF-funded program, account for inflationary pressures, establish spending priorities and make whatever adjustments are necessary through the normal budget process.
This is not a crisis. It is the routine process of reconciling projected revenue and spending with reality; a decision of how to expense funds that have accumulated but may only be spent in a certain way — something that happens every day in government and the private sector.
So why all the fuss?
That remains unclear.
Is the long-term sustainability of TANF programs worthy of discussion? Of course. But why was this structural concern not raised during the previous legislative session, when lawmakers and the administration were developing the state budget? Given the known numbers listed above, it seems the concern would have bubbled to the top in the budget process.
The governor has noted problems with the state’s PATH system, and an inability to see what is being spent in realtime. Fair. But adapt, re-tool and develop a stopgap solution until a new system can be implemented, just as the private sector would do, just as you would do if your budget software of choice failed.
Candidly, the facts do not support the crisis declaration.
Then came Governor Morrisey’s comments Tuesday during a presser at Marshall University about TANF benefits potentially being used to purchase beer and cigarettes.
Morrisey shifted the conversation toward something nearly everyone would oppose: public-assistance benefits being used for alcohol, tobacco or other so-called “sin purchases.”
But is that actually happening? The administration offered no proof that it has.
Should West Virginia consider tighter controls on cash withdrawals from EBT cards? That is a legitimate policy question. But EBT-card cash withdrawals did not create the supposed TANF fiscal crisis – what brought us here.
Based on the evidence presented to date, this looks more like a political crisis manufactured through messaging and showmanship than a genuine financial emergency. That may not be the intent, but that is what it looks like. More may come to light that proves that hypothesis wrong, time will tell.
Meanwhile, as always, West Virginians can examine the numbers and decide for themselves. They, time and again, have proven the best arbiter of such decisions.
Editor’s Note: A simple one-page reconciliation with TANF beginning balance to account for monies left over and unused from previous fiscal years; followed by all revenue expected (state and federal) for fiscal 2027; followed by expenses for fiscal 2027 would easily demonstrate any shortfall (or not) for the fiscal year. Such a reconciliation has yet to be provided.