With little publicly available polling leading up to the midterm election, any released data tell a valuable story about voter sentiment.
We got a taste of that this week with the release of new polling numbers from State Navigate. The non-partisan, non-profit organization polled voters in the West Virginia Senate District 1 and District 8 regarding their feelings about Governor Patrick Morrisey and state senate candidates in those respective districts.
The survey found that a majority of voters are dissatisfied with the governor’s job nearly two years into his first term. In District 1, 45 percent of respondents said they disapproved of the governor’s job performance. In District 8, 61 percent of those surveyed disapproved.
Across the country, Democratic candidates are hoping President Trump’s disapproval numbers can translate into electoral wins. Does the same principle apply here in West Virginia? Does dissatisfaction with the governor translate to a Democratic advantage in state senate races?
The State Navigate Poll says it’s possible.
In District 1, 32 percent of voters said they were less likely to vote for a Morrisey-backed candidate. In District 8, that climbed to nearly 50 percent.
The data released by State Navigate offers just a small glimpse into what the electorate is thinking with the election still a month away, and there are still other variables to consider.
Despite the governor’s unpopularity, Republican voter registration increased again in September according to the West Virginia Secretary of State. Democratic Party registration decreased, and long-time Democratic stronghold Logan County flipped red for the first time.
Democratic candidates for state offices must also overcome the national party’s perception in West Virginia. The national party’s embrace of far-left, progressive social policies and association with the Democratic Socialist of America create major headwinds for moderate Democratic candidates in West Virginia.
Independent voters are the biggest “X” factor in the general election. Voters who are disenchanted with both parties are often motivated more by opposition to a particular party or candidate rather than enthusiasm for a candidate or party.
According to Pew Research, for Republican leaners, opposition to Democratic policies was considerably more common than enthusiasm for Republican policies. The same pattern held, even more strongly, among Democratic leaners across the country.
Will those non-affiliated voters be more motivated by opposition to issues that dominate the national news cycle or by the discontent with the governor’s job performance here at home?
Polls are only a snapshot in time, and without robust data sets to provide insights, we’ll glean what we can and then some until voters get the final say on November 3rd.