Listen to “Club for Growth Sends Justice a Message” on Spreaker.
Purveyors of Mountain State opinion — me included — have taken to print, airwaves and social media of late to talk about U.S. Senator Jim Justice’s potential run for governor in 2028.
The scuttlebutt — what sailors call rumors — has intensified since Justice wrapped up a deal that brought an end to Omni’s bid to acquire the Greenbrier. That’s only natural, I suppose.
Perhaps a bit more unexpected — or maybe not — is that Washington is taking notice and talking too, including the Club for Growth.
Founded in 1999, the Club for Growth has become an influential force in conservative politics, advocating lower taxes, reduced government spending, deregulation, school choice and limited government.
It doesn’t just advocate. It spends.
The Club rates lawmakers, endorses candidates and pours money into races on behalf of politicians it believes will advance its agenda. It has also shown a willingness to challenge Republican incumbents it believes have strayed from those principles.
David McIntosh — his name appeared on numerous campaign finance reports in the May primary — is the organization’s president. Here’s what he told me:
“The Club for Growth spent $13.1 million in support of conservative Governor Patrick Morrisey in his first run for Governor. And if he is challenged for reelection, we are prepared to do what it takes to help him win again. Morrisey is already delivering on his promises, from cutting taxes to the HOPE scholarship to getting the state’s fiscal house in order. Morrisey was the first Republican elected to the governor’s office in two decades, and the change of direction could not be more apparent. Common sense, growth and opportunity, and conservative values are leading the way in West Virginia. We’re excited about Governor Morrisey’s vision for the state and are committed to providing the financial support necessary to keep West Virginia moving in the right direction.”
Translation: We have deep pockets, and we won’t be shy about reaching into them if Morrisey is challenged.
Why drop this now? A few thoughts.
First, Justice is getting closer to making his intentions known according to sources. It could come very soon. That’s not to say he’s in or out, but his bent will become apparent.
The chill effect is real in politics, and an organization like the Club for Growth understands the power of letting a potential challenger know — before he ever gets into the race — just how much money could be waiting on the other side.
Will it work? Hold that thought.
Second, Morrisey is highly aligned with Club for Growth priorities.
As I’ve said before and discussed on Talkline, West Virginia is a cheap date. $13 million here does a lot more than in Ohio or Michigan or any other state for the most part.
Sometimes the best path to achieving national policy aims isn’t through Washington. It’s through America’s statehouses. Get enough states moving in the same direction and you create a political and policy trim tab capable of helping turn other states — and eventually Congress — toward your way of thinking.
Nobody likes to risk something that’s working, especially when it provides leverage elsewhere.
Third, Justice appears to be a clearing force among West Virginia Republicans who might otherwise consider challenging Morrisey.
If Justice gets in, others likely won’t. If Justice stays out, you may see multiple republicans enter. Multiple primary candidates favors Morrisey.
And Justice in a straight-up Republican primary against Morrisey — even a closed primary and even one flooded with outside money — would still represent a formidable challenge for the incumbent.
Morrisey knows that.
The Club for Growth knows it, too.
Which means the best way to beat Justice and also beat any other candidates may be to never have to run against Justice in the first place.
Seen through that lens, McIntosh’s statement looks more like a shot across Justice’s bow — delivered before he publicly announces and while there is still time for him to reconsider.
The message isn’t particularly subtle, but it is clear: If you get in, be prepared for a very expensive fight.
If Justice has firmly decided he wants to be governor again — which I believe is very likely — can the prospect of millions of dollars in outside spending dissuade him?
Maybe, but my gut says it wouldn’t play a defining role. After all, this isn’t the first time Justice and the Club for Growth have tangled – the Club supported Alex Mooney. Justice won that fight.
As always, time will tell all, but if the Club for Growth has its way, Morrisey will be a two-term governor.