“It has to be Jim.”
That line came up all weekend, no matter the locale — lunch, grabbing coffee, sitting in a waiting room, exchanging texts, watching football.
It came up in almost every political conversation.
Those “Anybody but Morrisey” conservatives already talking about 2028 are not pushing that narrative because they dislike the other names floating around. They’re doing it because they believe the only realistic path to beating Gov. Patrick Morrisey is a head-to-head race.
“I like so-and-so, but if a bunch of people get in, Morrisey wins by default,” was probably the second-most uttered line of the weekend.
Justice clears the deck. That’s the thinking.
If he gets in, the expectation is that no other serious candidate will.
A crowded field is simply too risky against what some call the “Morrisey third” — the roughly one-third of the Republican electorate believed to be firmly in Morrisey’s camp, come hell or high water.
So far, only one likely gubernatorial challenger — State Treasurer Larry Pack — has publicly said he will not run if Justice does. Pack also said he’ll lead the way in supporting Justice if he runs.
Could Justice simply endorse someone else and use his name and political weight to clear the field?
Unlikely.
Justice backed Moore Capito, now U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of West Virginia, in the last crowded Republican gubernatorial primary. It wasn’t enough to push Capito to victory then, and there’s little reason to believe a Justice endorsement alone would clear the field this time.
Money is another issue.
Morrisey is far ahead financially and has already demonstrated an ability to raise more when needed. Club for Growth told me they spent more than $13 million last time out for Morrisey and will do what it takes this time to see him re-elected.
Pack enjoys a vast business and political network, and ample personal wealth to help fund a campaign. There’s less certainty about the fundraising ability of some of the other names being mentioned.
Justice may have financial challenges of his own, but his name recognition and remarkable political durability mean he may not need to raise as much money as another challenger would to compete. Note: multiple sources, despite Forbes’ valuation, say Justice is the richest member of the Senate.
And as a sitting U.S. senator — even a relatively new one — Justice isn’t without fundraising ability, particularly if Pack and others in the state’s business and political establishment get behind him.
So, does it really have to be Jim?
That’s for others to reckon with.
No disrespect intended to anyone considering a run in writing about the question, by the way.
But if the singular goal is defeating Morrisey, it’s increasingly difficult to argue that a Justice-Morrisey, head-to-head primary isn’t the opposition’s best path.
We’ll likely know whether that matchup is coming sometime after the midterms.