CHARLOTTESVILLE, VA — Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball moved the race for governor in West Virginia Thursday from ‘leans-Republican’ to ‘toss-up.’
Recent polls, including last week’s MetroNews West Virginia Poll, that show Democrat Jim Justice with a lead over Republican Bill Cole figured into the decision, Sabato’s Managing Editor Kyle Kondik said Thursday on MetroNews “Talkline.”
“We have kind of conflicting instincts here but we decided to move it to ‘toss-up’ and actually Justice is better than 50-50 to win, I think,” Kondik said, adding Sabato’s also switched the race to ‘leans Democrat.’
Sabato’s expects West Virginia to be a strong state for Donald Trump in the race for president and research shows fewer voters are ticket splitting on their ballots but Justice, the political outsider and owner of the Greenbrier Resort, may be enough of a different candidate to buck that trend in West Virginia, Kondik said.
“Justice is not a typical Democrat. He’s kind of a nominal Democrat,” he said. “Maybe Justice is the right kind of guy to fight against the trend.”
Cole’s camp has said the polls are wrong and the Senate president is much closer to Justice, somewhere in the four-point range.
Kondik said there’s still a path for a Cole victory especially if Trump receives 65 percent of the vote or more in West Virginia on Nov. 8.
“That would mean that Trump creates coattails for Cole and gets him over the finish line. We still feel there’s a certain amount of uncertainty,” Kondik said.
Cole was scheduled to campaign with former U.S. House Speaker Newt Gingrich Thursday evening in Martinsburg.