COMMENTARY
MORGANTOWN, W.Va. — Time has a funny way of proving itself to be the ultimate arbiter of consequential events.
This time last year, the mood around Morgantown was bleak. West Virginia had squandered a golden opportunity to beat Oklahoma and reach the Big 12 championship game. A controversial officiating decision that many directly tied to the outcome only added fuel to that foul air.
But the way things have unfolded since, it’s hard to argue that once-painful loss didn’t benefit West Virginia in the long run.
Dana Holgorsen’s failure to beat the Sooners and reach the Big 12 title game squelched his chances at a contract extension. Knowing what the Mountaineers had coming back, he correctly recognized that 2019 would likely end up being his final year with the program. At best, he was going 4-8 with the roster he had assembled. A worse record was possible, if not probable.
Holgorsen found the perfect parachute in Houston, and West Virginia found the perfect replacement in Neal Brown.
Early this season, particularly after WVU’s blowout loss at Missouri, conventional wisdom was to rip Holgorsen for the shoddy condition in which he left the team for 2019 before high-tailing it. This space was no exception, possibly even playing the role of drum major in the anti-Dana parade.
Then time passed, as it always does. And it makes one realize Holgorsen should actually be thanked.
As college football enters another coaching silly season, it is clear that the greatest gift Holgorsen provided the program, save for that blowout Orange Bowl win over Clemson, was the perfect timing of his departure.
If Holgorsen didn’t exercise his opportunity to leave early for Houston, West Virginia would have been stuck changing coaches this offseason. And in this job market, it seems unlikely Brown would have made his way to Morgantown.
Last year there were no head coaching vacancies in the SEC. This year, there are three — Arkansas, Ole Miss and Missouri.
With another successful season at Troy, deep in the heart of SEC country, Brown would have been an obvious candidate on the Razorbacks and Rebels radar screens.
And while West Virginia could have correctly marketed itself as a program in better overall health had it been forced to compete against those schools for Brown’s services, it does not have the bankroll that comes with playing in the SEC.
Arkansas pulled in $130 million in revenue last year. Ole Miss made nearly $111 million. West Virginia made $102.6 million — a figure good for fourth in the Big 12, but still not in position for a bidding war against anyone from the SEC West.
It’s also conceivable that those schools would not have been Brown’s most likely destination.
Troy, Ala. is a mere three-hour drive to Tallahassee, Fla., and the space between is part of Florida State’s recruiting backyard.
The Seminoles haven’t made a hire yet, but after Iowa State coach Matt Campbell re-upped with the Cyclones, many in the business feel that Memphis coach Mike Norvell is their most likely candidate.
Norvell has one fewer year of head coaching experience than Brown, not to mention less overall time in the Power Five as an assistant coach.
If Houston hadn’t been prompted to replace Major Applewhite after just two years thank to an embarrassing 70-14 bowl loss to Army, and if Brown had put together another nine- or 10-win season at Troy, there is a chance West Virginia would be opening the 2020 season against Neal Brown. It’s hard to think of a more ideal fit for Florida State in the current job market.
The vast majority of West Virginia fans are no doubt thankful history did not play out that way.
And to think, all it took to avoid going down that path was some excessive blocking, a back-breaking fumble return, an unstoppable option attack run by a bunch of future Army officers and a Houston administration with itchy trigger-fingers.