MORGANTOWN, W.Va – For the better part of the last two years, Sen. Joe Manchin has been at the center of every major piece of legislation proposed on Capitol Hill.
The moderate Democrat has been lauded by Republicans and called an obstructionist by members of his own party, only to later be praised by Democrats for his key support of President Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act and accused of being a traitor by those on the right.
The dramatic shift in support in Washington, D.C. has been reflected in Manchin’s approval ratings back home. Manchin’s job approval has ebbed and flowed among Republicans and Democrats all year.
In April, Morning Consult released polling data that indicated that 57 percent of West Virginia voters approved of Manchin’s job performance. That was up a whopping 40 percent from the first quarter of 20-21. During that same period, Manchin had doubled his approval rating among state Republicans to 69 percent.
Republican Consultant Greg Thomas says Manchin’s resistance to Democrat proposals for sweeping election reforms and eliminating the filibuster were factors but key to the rise in popularity among GOP voters was his opposition to Build Back Better.
“Senator Manchin was sitting in a position to stop some of nonsense going on in D.C. from the liberal Biden administration and his favorabilities kept going up and up,” Thomas said.
The previous year, just 35 percent of Republicans in West Virginia approved of the senator’s job performance. He also made gains among Independent voters with his approval rating rising from 31 percent to 50 percent.
Where Manchin made up ground among Republicans in West Virginia, he lost supporrt from within his own party. The same poll indicated 54 percent of WV Democrats disapproved of Manchin’s work, up from 32 percent the year before.
However, the popularity among conservatives in West Virginia would be short lived and by the end of the summer, many of the same people who had praised Manchin for standing up to the White House were now furious with him for supporting President Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act.
The bill included initiatives that Manchin has long supported, a 15 percent corporate minimum tax, Medicare negotiating prescription drug prices and enforcing existing tax codes. There was also another critical deal struck that won Manchin’s support, the infamous side deal with Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer.
“Absolutely, I”m saying straight to you, without permitting reforms, without the ability for American to do what it does best, to produce, there is no bill,” Manchin said on Metronews Talkline. “That is totally agreed upon and understood.”
The side deal that was crucial to getting Manchin’s support for the Inflation Reduction Act, never came to fruition. It fell to opposition from both sides of the aisle.
Former Manchin Press Secretary Jonathan Kott believes Manchin was convinced the deal was good policy but that it fell victim to the polarized politics of Washington, D.C.
“He’s just surprised that people would actually vote against their state’s best interest. He believe this was the right thing to do. He made an agreement and he was willing to go out and put his neck on the line and sell it,” said Kott.
As a result, Manchin’s approval numbers in WV plummeted, particularly among Republicans. In October, Morning Consult reported Manchin’s approval rating was just 42 percent and his disapproval rating was up to 51 percent.
The sudden shift in Manchin’s approval numbers should not have come as a surprise according to Chris Stirewalt, Politics Editor for News Nation. Stirewalt contends Manchin’s popularity among Republicans was always a mirage.
“Those people weren’t going to vote for him in 2024 if he ran again,” Stirewalt said. “Those Republicans who approved of the way Joe Manchin was serving as senator, approved of the anguish he was causing to Democrats. If the Republicans could run a normal candidate against him in 2024 he’d lose. Those weren’t really his voters. Those were people who approved of him. That was a sugar high. That wasn’t really him.”
That leaves Joe Manchin in the same position that he has been in his entire political career, somewhere in the middle with his options open.