U.S. Senator Joe Manchin says he is seriously considering leaving the Democratic Party and becoming an independent.
“I would think very seriously about that,” Manchin said during an appearance on Talkline Thursday. “I’ve been thinking about it for quite some time.”
Manchin is a life-long Democrat, but he finds himself increasingly at odds with the national Democratic Party agenda. But he also cannot countenance the right leaning Republican Party.
“The bottom line is—will the middle speak up? Does the middle have a voice? If we can create a movement that people understand… we could make a big, big splash and maybe bring the traditional parties—the Democratic and Republican party, back to what they should be today,” Manchin said. “But they’ve gone off the Richter Scale, both sides.”
Manchin firmly believes he can win re-election if he decides to run again, even if Republican Governor Jim Justice is the nominee. A poll in June had Justice leading Manchin 54 percent to 32 percent. Manchin is concerned about running in his home state with that “D” beside his name.
West Virginia has gone deeply red, and any Democrat will have an even tougher time if Donald Trump is at the top of the ticket. It is also questionable whether running as an independent would give him any real advantage in West Virginia. It might actually work against him.
Yes, one in four voters in the state is an independent—no party affiliation—so those individuals would conceivably be open to a candidate who, like them, rejects a party label. The other three out of four belong to one of the two major parties. Manchin would have to peel off votes from Republicans and Democrats to have a chance.
Most Republicans will line up with Trump and Justice, if he is the nominee. Loyal Democrats will be upset with Manchin for leaving the party. The small, but passionate, left wing of the Democratic Party will likely put up their own candidate that would take essential votes away from Manchin in the General Election.
Manchin has talked about going independent for a long time, floating the idea in the press and talking about it with confidants. Those who know him best understand that Manchin often thinks out loud, so you cannot always take his comments as gospel.
However, Manchin’s comments on Talkline Thursday were calculated, and evidence that he increasingly sees himself as a voice for Americans who feel as he does. “I want to make sure that my voice is truly an independent voice,” he said.
But the question is whether enough voters are open to that message for him to get elected.