With about a month to go before the election, Gov. Jim Justice has a commanding lead against Congressman Alex Mooney in the Republican race for U.S. Senate.
Justice leads 66% to Mooney’s 24 percent, according to the latest MetroNews West Virginia Poll, sponsored by The Health Plan. The remainder of likely voters who were polled remained undecided or named some other candidate.
“Obviously, Jim Justice has a commanding lead over Alex Mooney in all of the demographic and geographic variables in the state,” said Rex Repass, president of Research America, which conducted the poll.
West Virginia’s primary election is May 14. The early voting period for the primary election starts on Wednesday, May 1, and ends on Saturday, May 11.
Mooney faces long odds to overtake Justice at this point, Repass said.
“With the small undecideds, it’s unlikely to be able to make up that significant of a lead,” Repass said in a telephone interview. “A 40+ percent lead, a popular governor running for the United States Senate, it’s more than an uphill climb.”
The MetroNews West Virginia Poll surveyed 400 likely Republican voters between April 3 and 9. Respondents in all 55 counties were included in the sampling frame. The data collection was online and by telephone.
The overall confidence level is +/- 4.9 percentage points.
Justice and Mooney are vying for the U.S. Senate seat currently held by Joe Manchin, a Democrat who decided not to run again. Because West Virginia has been trending more and more Republican, most political observers have already concluded that the winner of the Republican primary is a slam dunk to win.
The MetroNews poll did not survey voters about Democratic candidates for the seat. Democrats on the ballot for the seat include Wheeling Mayor Glenn Elliott, Marine Veteran Zach Shrewsbury and former coal executive Don Blankenship, who spent years promoting conservative and Republican causes.
Mooney was elected to Congress representing a swath of West Virginia in 2014. In 2022, he defeated fellow Congressman David McKinley in a consolidated district that includes the state’s northern counties.
Before winning the congressional seat, Mooney was a Maryland state senator from 1999 to 2010 and then chairman of Maryland’s Republican Party from 2010 to 2013.
Justice is a two-term governor who first won that office as a Democrat in 2016. He switched parties in 2017 at a rally for then-President Donald Trump, citing his close relationship with Trump and saying he could accomplish more as a Republican. Trump announced an endorsement for Justice several months ago.
Justice’s family owns West Virginia’s famed Greenbrier Hotel, and the family business network includes coal, timber and agriculture holdings. Justice made his early reputation as a “business guy” who could “buzz the numbers.” The businesses have been under significant and widely discussed financial pressure, but that hasn’t affected Justice’s electoral position.
“Pretty much everybody knows the name of the governor. Those who have been in statewide office at the highest level for a long time have high name recognition,” Repass said.
This week, Mooney questioned whether Justice would show up for a “High Noon Showdown” debate with the Webster County Republican Party. Mooney said he had agreed to participate.
“Jim Justice has been flat-out lying to West Virginians and now is the time for him to put his money where his mouth is, defend his liberal record, and speak to voters face-to-face,” Mooney stated in a press release headlined “Will Jim Justice debate?”
“While Justice continues to focus on his failing businesses and mounting debts, I am crisscrossing the state and talking to voters about how I will represent them in the U.S. Senate.”
The Justice campaign said no.
“It’s sad when desperate people do desperate things. West Virginians can judge Governor Justice and Alex Mooney by their deeds over the last seven years of service, which has been an ongoing debate, not a spectacle of Hail Mary campaign tactics,” said Roman Stauffer, campaign manager for Justice.
“Mooney did not do his job and failed to meet West Virginians, and the polls show him losing by nearly 40 points.”