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A number of thoughts run unbridled as pen meets paper today — all about the upcoming election on May 12.
Albert Einstein once said, “Everything should be made as simple as possible, but not simpler.” There’s power in that. He meant clarity and simplicity are valuable, but oversimplifying can distort reality. Good thinking removes clutter while preserving truth.
Here’s my good thinking in simple — not simpler — terms: this election is less about individual candidates and more about a referendum on Patrick Morrisey’s first term so far. A fan? Vote his slate. Not a fan? Vote the other way and deny him legislative wins. That’s the cleanest and most effective way to view it.
It is not really about the 33 percent of Republicans who supported the Governor in the ’24 primary — it is about the 67 percent who did not. Yes, he won more than a plurality in the general election, but that round carries less meaning here. When Republican voters were given a choice, more chose someone else. Two years later, will they do so again?
Do not doubt that Republicans who backed Morrisey in the primary will likely support his candidates in this midterm primary. The safe bet says he keeps those core supporters and they back his slate. Assuming an even geographic spread — more for the sake of argument than historical reality — he would need only another 18 percent in most districts to reach 51 percent.
But that is far from certain, especially with others such as Shelley Moore Capito weighing in with endorsements. This election will be a dogfight — likely not a blowout in either direction, but tight races throughout.
Combine that with low turnout in an off year, and it gets even tighter.
The wildcard: have enough voters internalized the PAC-funding issue, and does it matter? Will voters care that Sugar Maple PAC — reportedly tied to Morrisey allies — generated much of its money from out-of-state donors?
West Virginia voters do not typically appreciate outsiders telling them what to do. But in an era where many are afflicted with the sickness of busyness — combined with a sadly diminishing sense of civic duty — will voters even notice the disclaimers showing what group funded the messaging? Have they read about dark money or heard the radio discussion on the topic? Unclear.
Another conundrum: most people say they are sick of mailers. Many are quick to point to one or another they view as distasteful, out of bounds, or false. Yet not one candidate seems willing to disavow the groups sending them. Perusing campaign websites, social media pages, and public messaging failed to reveal even one candidate willing to call out an independent expenditure committee for the tactics used against an opponent.
It is worth noting candidates cannot coordinate with these committees and certainly do not control them. But there is no law preventing a candidate from condemning a mailer that pairs an opponent with Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Joe Biden when everyone knows that opponent does not politically align with either figure.
The upside — perceived anyway — appears too great. Unfortunate, in my view.
Moving on… an astute Republican observer told me a few days ago that once every penny is added up, look for about $10 million in total spending on legislative primary races. Unfathomable. Half that would be shocking. And if the trend holds, much of that money will come from organizations and voices outside West Virginia. Why? Each can draw their own conclusion.
Finally, Senator Jim Justice has remained quiet so far in all of this. Not that he is without reason; he is in the fight of his life to keep The Greenbrier. But will Justice become involved in the closing days?
If he intends to run for governor again, is this not an opportunity to demonstrate a flex? Start a campaign with a shot across the bow? Maybe he passes on another run, but is not keen on another Morrisey term either?
Imagine what Justice could do to muck up Morrisey’s works.
One thought… Mr. Justice has a friend — a good friend, by his account — who resides at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue in Washington, D.C. Suppose Mr. Justice convinced Mr. Trump to endorse a few of the Takubo-faction candidates; a way to ensure any potential race for governor in 2028 — make no mistake that race starts one minute after the polls close May 12 — began with Mr. Morrisey hitting the ground with a loud thud on election night this May.
Normally, there’s no chance a president would get involved. The times we live in are not normal.