MORGANTOWN, W.Va. — An expert on the state’s economy says the state’s unemployment rate is hovering around 20 percent.
The rate for April, 15.2 percent, was released Tuesday, but WVU Bureau of Business and Economic Research Director John Deskins said that number was derived from jobless numbers the week of April 12. He said unfortunately there have been many more layoffs since then.
“We think the true unemployment rate that reflects the situation right now is probably more like 19 or 20 percent because obviously there have been more layoffs since the middle of April,” Deskins said during a Wednesday appearance on MetroNews “Talkline.”
Dr. John Deskins, Director of WVU’s Bureau of Business and Economic Research, joins @HoppyKercheval to discuss West Virginia’s unemployment rate. WATCH: https://t.co/wkudfIRZCB pic.twitter.com/sGMFTKjkTa
— MetroNews (@WVMetroNews) May 20, 2020
WorkForce West Virginia acting Commissioner Scott Adkins agreed in comments made at Wednesday’s state coronavirus media briefing.
“If you look at the trends, we’re probably going to peak out at 20 and 21 percent, maybe as high as 22 percent,” Adkins said. “Obviously as the economy opens up and more people go back to work that should level off.”
There are now more than 200,000 people in West Virginia receiving unemployment benefits. The state has paid out more than $600 million since mid-March.
Deskins said the numbers of jobs lost in West Virginia during the pandemic are mind boggling.
“The state from March to April lost 90,000 jobs, 9-0, 90,000,” Deskins said. “That represents around 12 percent of all the jobs in West Virginia lost in one month. Never, never have we seen anything like that.”
But Deskins said he’s still confident the comeback can be at a quickened pace because of how quickly the nation shut down.
“This has been a recession by design. We intentionally shut down businesses because of these health concerns. We intentionally shut down the economy,” Deskins said.
Among the many unanswered questions, according to Deskins, is how the decisions of the past 10 weeks will impact the future.
“Right now I’m looking for underlying damage, longer term damage in the economy. Things like bankruptcies and business closures and we just don’t have enough data on that yet,” Deskins said.
Gov. Jim Justice predicted Wednesday the state would continue to feel the pain of a growing unemployment rate but he did say he’s been encouraged by recent revenue collection numbers. He said they are close to the 25 percent drop in revenues his office is predicting.
“I’m looking at the revenues coming in and all the different taxes. I’m encouraged by the numbers that came in last night (Tuesday night),” Justice said.
Deskins said a big key to the future of West Virginia’s economy will be consumer confidence.
“How long will is it going to take for people to go back to restaurants or go back to movie theatres once they reopen? How long is it going to take for people to be confident enough to fly in an airplane again? It’s hard to predict consumer confidence,” Deskins said.