A lot of factors are stacking up as West Virginia goes into the next political cycle. One is that Democrats are putting more candidates in races. Democrats are fielding candidates in a 85 House districts this year and 17 of the 19 Senate seats up for grabs.
And there will be battles among the Republicans who have dominated West Virginia elections for a decade. Ballots will feature 15 Republican primaries out of 17 state Senate seats and 44 Republican primaries out of 100 House of Delegates seats.
But, and we hope you’re sitting down, the big picture in West Virginia elections will not be changing, according to a new forecast by a nonprofit organization that focuses on state governments.
State Navigate predicts Republican supermajorities will remain intact in both chambers of the West Virginia Legislature, according to the forecast released today.
“To state the obvious, neither the majorities or super majorities in West Virginia are in play,” said Chaz Nuttycombe, executive director of State Navigate. “But you know, either party could gain seats.”
For political junkies or people with particular local interest, State Navigate generates a percentage probability for each seat up for grabs. There’s also a mother lode of data to chew through in each district.
The forecast is based not just on gut instinct or recent history, but seat-by-seat analysis. It also could change. State Navigate’s model is updated daily and so the details of the forecast can evolve based on various factors, including primary results and national trends.
The model takes into account several factors, including the electoral history of the districts to capture local voting patterns and incumbency effects. The model uses statewide elections to strip out district-specific quirks and focus on the broader partisan baseline.
From a series of simulations, it derives probabilities and seat counts, not just single yes/no calls. Uncertainty is built in, especially because many districts are small, include community quirks and are underpolled.
“The model has a lot of uncertainty, just because it has super small districts and areas that are very unpredictable are going to have unpredictable outcomes,” said Jack Kersting, development director for State Navigate.
“So that’s really built into the model, and especially being nine months out of the election, there’s going to be even more baked in uncertainty.”
Overall, though, State Navigate predicts Republicans are favored to win 92 of the 100 seats in West Virginia’s House of Delegates, which is up one from the current total.
The predicted House pickup for Republicans is the 5th District seat currently held by Shawn Fluharty, who is running for Senate.
“Because of Shawn Fluharty not seeking re-election to his seat, you know, there’s definitely room for Republicans to gain ground in the House,” Nuttycombe said.
In the Senate, State Navigate predicts a continued 32-2 Republican supermajority. One of the two seats held by Democrats is safe because Joey Garcia of Marion County is not on the ballot this cycle.
State Navigate is predicting a Republican win in the 5th District seat currently held by Democrat Mike Woelfel, who is retiring from the Senate. But State Navigate is predicting a Democrat win in the college town 13th District currently held by Republican Mike Oliverio.
“It looks like, you know, in all likelihood, Democrats will still have two seats, right, because of the 5th now being an open seat. I don’t think Democrats really have a strong recruit there that will be able to keep a seat that is as red as that.”
In the 13th, State Navigate is taking college town demographics and national trends into heavy account.
“All in all, that seat probably slips. You know, John Williams is going to focus hard in Morgantown,” Nuttycombe said, referring to the current Democratic delegate who is challenging for the Senate seat.
The forecast debuting today is State Navigate’s first of this electoral cycle.
Although State Navigate does not predict primary election results, Nuttycombe said he has been intrigued by the divides in West Virginia’s Republican Party and the GOP’s decision to close its primaries.
“When I learned a year ago that the primaries being closed to independents, I knew there was going to be this civil war happening,” he said.
“West Virginia has a divide in both chambers between the Republicans.”
Nuttycombe, a 26-year-old Richmond, Va., resident, has been building out the political data operation since he was a college student at Virginia Tech. The mission of State Navigate, he said, is to make state data accessible to everybody.
“We want to do this in a nonpartisan way,” he said. “Having a resource for everybody to use whether they’re a elite or an average joe or a nerd like me, that they should have this right to get any bit of data they want on their state government in one place for free.”
State Navigate is up to operating in eight states right now as it continues to build out.
Nuttycombe came to West Virginia’s legislative session last year for a few days for a boots-on-the-ground perspective and to touch base with political figures of all stripes.
In the near future, he said, “I’ll definitely be coming up to West Virginia once or twice to do a district profile.”
🚨1ST 2026 FORECAST LAUNCH🚨
WV is the 1st state to have a 2026 forecast. Right now, Rs are slightly favored to gain 1 seat in the House, and Ds are expected to hold their ground in the Senate by cancelling out an R flip.https://t.co/H3BvMgMXoy pic.twitter.com/Em9H248gKC
— Chaz Nuttycombe (@ChazNuttycombe) February 10, 2026