CHARLESTON, W.Va. — So much is at stake on Election Day that record numbers of West Virginians couldn’t even wait to vote.
The Secretary of State’s office said 212,000 West Virginians had already cast ballots during the early voting period, blowing way past the old record of 153,096 from 2008.
As even more West Virginians go to the polls today, almost every decision they make will play a role in what direction the state takes for the next two to four years — or beyond.
From federal regulatory matters such as the Clean Power Plan to state government issues such as prevailing wage and right-to-work to the direction of the political parties in West Virginia, every mark of the ballot has meaning this year.
No pressure, right?
Here’s what’s on the line:
1. Federal energy policy
If you talk to West Virginia voters, this is usually what they mention the most, and it’s apparent in the campaigns — even in some of the down-ballot races that have very little to do with the federal government.
West Virginia is expected to vote in heavy numbers for Donald Trump, and the main reason is his open-throttle position on energy issues. During the second presidential debate, Trump addressed energy — and West Virginia — in response to a question from an audience member.
“We have to guard our energy companies,” Trump said. “We have to make it possible. The EPA is so restrictive that they are putting our energy companies out of business. All you have to do is go to a great place like West Virginia or a place like Ohio, which is phenomenal, or places like Pennsylvania and you see what they’re doing to the people, miners and others, in the energy business. It’s a disgrace.”
In contrast, West Virginians tend to have a phrase by Hillary Clinton baked into their brains: “Because we’re going to put a lot of coal miners and coal companies out of business, right?”
Clinton made that statement during a March 13 CNN Town Hall and included more context about her additional proposals to pump $30 billion into communities affected by coal’s downturn. But for many West Virginians, the one comment was enough, and they’re well aware of her embrace of the Clean Power Plan.
The economics of cheap natural gas could make it an uphill battle to bring coal back all the way, as Trump’s promises suggest. But many West Virginia voters may just want to give their state’s signature energy source a fighting chance.
“The historic connection in the state of West Virginia is so strong, and coal so dominates,” said Simon Haeder, a political scientist at West Virginia University. “Donald Trump has strategically played into that, and Hillary Clinton has made some strategic mistakes.”
The debate over federal energy policy flows through practically every other issue on West Virginia ballots.
“It seems to me that’s the one thing everyone here is focused on,” Haeder said. “Everything is dominated by coal and energy and what the effect in West Virginia will be.”
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2. The governor
Lots of West Virginia Republicans, including gubernatorial candidate Bill Cole, have tied their campaigns closely to Trump’s, hoping to ride his immense popularity in this state.
Any other year, that might be a big factor in pushing Cole, the state Senate president, across the finish line. He would be West Virginia’s first Republican governor since Cecil Underwood from 1996 to 2000.
But this year, Cole is up against West Virginia’s richest man, coal magnate Jim Justice. The West Virginia Coal Association has endorsed Cole, and the United Mine Workers endorsed Justice.
Justice, a former Republican, says he isn’t voting for Clinton. He says he isn’t voting for anyone for president at all.
Like Trump, Justice has run an outsider’s campaign, pointing to his track record as a businessman and with The Greenbrier Resort. He says that experience and mindset will help him succeed where others could not. ” In fact, I think we’re way too good and the reality is real simple, there are so many things right at our fingertips,” he said at a rally in Point Pleasant.
Detractors point to Justice’s long list of unpaid taxes and fines.
“The race has not set up well for Bill Cole because most of the arguments he makes, I think Jim Justice agrees with him,” Haeder said. “Justice has this advantage, kind of like Trump has, that he can come across as a very successful person, and I think people in West Virginia kind of look up to that. It doesn’t shape out well for Cole.”
The prize for the winner is sagging state revenue and a massive budget gap.
3. Attorney General
The race to be the top lawyer for West Virginia’s executive branch has stood out for its spending and mudslinging.
The current Republican incumbent, Patrick Morrisey, hopes to hold onto the office up against an aggressive campaign by his Democratic opponent, Delegate Doug Reynolds.
When Morrisey defeated incumbent Darrell McGraw four years ago, he became the first Republican Attorney General in West Virginia since Howard B. Lee‘s term ended in 1933.
Morrisey tells West Virginia voters he wants to continue fighting the Environmental Protection Agency and battle West Virginia’s prescription drug epidemic. Reynolds also says he wants to fight the EPA and take on the prescription drug epidemic.
Morrisey has aligned his campaign with Trump’s. Reynolds says he is not voting for Trump or Clinton.
Reynolds makes a case that Morrisey, a former lobbyist, has conflicts of interest with the very prescription drug companies his office is suing. Morrisey casts Reynolds as a not-so-closet liberal who is using his family’s wealth to win office.
Reynolds has poured at least $3 million of his own money into the campaign. Morrisey has gotten more than $6 million in help from the Republican Attorney General’s Association.
Clearly both sides believe the office is worth significant campaign investment.
“We’ve seen that all across the country. With the AG’s office, you don’t have to deal with a lot of the bad stuff, like dealing with a budget deficit, that can make you unpopular,” Haeder said. “Attorney Generals have really realized they have an independent source of policy-making power here.”
The big draw is the public platform the office provides, agreed Robert Rupp, political science professor at West Virginia Wesleyan.
“What is ironic is the Attorney General does not have an extraordinary amount of power as given to him in the state Constitution,” Rupp said. “But what Morrisey has been able to do is he’s been able to give visibility to that office.
“When’s the last time we had a down-ballot race attracting almost more attention than the governor and attracting more money than the governor? There’s a lot of money being poured into that position.”
4. Even more executive branch
Once dominated by Democrats, West Virginia’s other positions on the board of public works — Secretary of State, Auditor, Treasurer and Agriculture Commissioner — appear as competitive as they’ve been for a long time.
“For the first time in a generation, there’s competition for many statewide offices,” Rupp said. “How many statewide offices can they (Republicans) control besides Attorney General? They could go up to three or four. Will the Democrats be able to hang on?”
Completely up for grabs is the Auditor’s office, responsible for ensuring that state funds are withdrawn and deposited legally.
Former auditor Glen Gainer III, a Democrat, had held the post since 1993. He declined to seek re-election this go-round. His father, Glen Gainer Jr., was state Auditor from 1977 to 1993.
This time, Democrat Mary Ann Claytor seeks to become West Virginia’s first statewide African-American officeholder. She’s up against state Delegate J.B. McCuskey, a Republican whose father, John, served on the state Supreme Court.
Two spots pit multi-term incumbents against new challengers.
The Treasurer’s race pits John Perdue, the Democratic incumbent since 1996, against Republican banker Ann Urling in the race to be West Virginia’s chief financial officer.
The Secretary of State’s race matches incumbent Democrat Natalie Tennant, who took office in 2009, against Republican Mac Warner, a former attorney for the Department of Defense in Afghanistan, to be West Virginia’s chief elections officer.
One test in the Treasurer and Secretary of State’s race will be how far down the line West Virginians carry their distaste for Hillary Clinton. Unlike other West Virginia Democrats, Perdue and Tennant haven’t tried to disguise any connections. Both were superdelegates voting for Clinton at the Democratic National Convention.
The Agriculture Commissioner race is a rematch of one-term incumbent Democrat Walt Helmick against Republican Kent Leonhardt. Both faced off in 2012 with Helmick winning by a margin of 3 percent.
The last Republican to hold the Agriculture Commissioner position was Cleve Benedict in 1988.
Democrat Gus Douglass, Helmick’s predecessor, held the position for 11 terms: 1964 to 1988 and 1992 to 2012. He was the nation’s longest-serving agriculture commissioner.
“From Auditor to Secretary of State to Agriculture Commissioner, I think those are all in play because of a shift to a more Republican-leaning state,” Haeder said. “I think it’s open, but we don’t know how open. Down-ticket votes often come down to party recognition.”
5. The state Senate
Republicans surprised everybody — possibly even themselves — by capturing the state Senate in 2014.
There was actually a 17-17 tie on Election Night but the next day Democratic Sen. Daniel Hall flipped to the Republicans, giving the GOP an 18-16 advantage.
In total, the Democrats lost eight Senate seats that election.
The slim GOP majority withstood another test in 2015 when Hall resigned to take a lobbying job with the National Rifle Association. The issue of replacing Hall went all the way to the state Supreme Court, which ruled that would be the GOP’s role.
Republicans took their 18-16 majority, plus new GOP control of the House of Delegates, and made a major push for tort reform in 2014 and then repealed prevailing wage and passed right-to-work in 2015.
The two houses of the Legislature overrode vetoes by Democratic Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin four times last year.
The GOP majority in the House of Delegates is considered safe, but the Republican advantage in the Senate could turn based on any single outcome in West Virginia.
“Will the Democrats push back, retake control over the state Senate?” Rupp asked. “It’s all going to depend on what the voters do in two or three Senate elections.”
If the Senate remains Republican, that would give the Legislature continuing latitude to pursue a conservative agenda.
If the Senate reverts to Democratic control, it would result in the kind of divided government that West Virginia has never seen before.
“If the Democrats can regain control over the state Senate, we’ll really have divided government,” Rupp said. “Democrats want push back so they can roll back. It will still be divided government. So what will happen?”
Under one scenario, the branches will have to work together and compromise, Haeder said. Potentially, they could give each other cover to pass some necessities, like a possible tax hike, that would otherwise be politically inexpedient.
“There would be an opportunity to give each other cover to address the structural workforce problems, to address the structural healthcare problems. You know the projections on the state budget, and they’re not looking good. There might be an opportunity here: We know everybody needs some shielding from their base to get something some, some controversial issues.”
Then there’s another scenario:
“On the other hand, there might be complete gridlock and people fighting it out to position themselves for the next election.”
6. Labor influence
West Virginia’s labor unions have not been happy with how Republicans used their majority the past two years, and they have used this election season to let everybody know it.
AFL-CIO President Kenny Perdue has said he regards the repeal of prevailing wage and the passage of right-to-work as threats to his way of life.
“They made it a personal attack on me,” Perdue said a couple of weeks ago.
He went on to say, “I have labeled Bill Cole as my enemy, and my job is to make sure he is not elected governor.”
So unions and their allies have poured more than $2 million into advertising campaigns against Cole and Republican legislative candidates.
It’s the biggest union effort since 1996 when labor organizations reacted with anger to the privatization of West Virginia’s workers compensation syste.
“I would call it unprecedented here in West Virginia,” said Josh Sword, secretary-treasurer of the state AFL-CIO. “We want to make sure every citizen in West Virginia knows what has happened to them the last two years.”
So, it’s become a showdown.
Will unions succeed in keeping Cole out of the governor’s mansion and flipping the Senate back into Democratic hands?
Bryan Hoylman, president of the West Virginia chapter of the Associated Builders and Contractors, contends what remains of labor influence in West Virginia rides on this election.
“Let’s say things go great for Republicans,” he said. “The unions and the trial lawyers don’t have much left in West Virginia. This is kind of their swan song if they don’t come through.”
7. Congress
The last time West Virginia had three Democrats in Congress, Alan Mollohan, Bob Wise and Nick Joe Rahall had the seats.
Then in 2000, Republican Shelley Moore Capito won the 2nd Congressional District when Wise left for a successful run for governor.
In 2014, Republicans took control of all three seats for the first time when Republican Evan Jenkins (who had switched his party registration from Democrat) defeated Rahall. Mooney took over the seat won by Capito when she successfully ran for U.S. Senate. And those two joined Republican David McKinley, who had taken over for Mollohan in 2010.
“It’s quite amazing how that’s flipped,” Haeder said. “I think it has to do with the Republicans just really being strategic and putting effort into candidate recruitment.”
So, can the Republicans maintain their dominance in Congress?
Yes.
They are significantly outraising and out spending their Democratic opponents. Election forecasting organizations like Cook Political Report have labeled all three congressional seats as “solid Republican.”
“Those seats are probably safe,” Haeder said, “maybe for a while now.”
8. The Democratic Party
Candidates representing the state Democratic Party are in a weird position since they so often run in the opposite direction from the national party.
Rupp likes to say there are three parties in America: “Republicans, Democrats, and West Virginia Democrat.”
Jim Justice, their standard bearer in West Virginia, wouldn’t go to the Democratic National Convention and says he won’t vote for Clinton… or Trump.
Justice says he’s for economic growth and will fight for the coal industry, but that leaves people wondering where liberal Democrats fit in.
“I am representing good, down-home West Virginia Democrats, people that really care, people who really are grounded, conservative maybe in their thinking a little bit,” Justice said at a gubernatorial debate in response to a question about whether he would represent progressive Democrats.
Charlotte Pritt, the Democratic Party’s gubernatorial nominee in 1996, is running this year as the Mountain Party candidate. She says Cole and Justice are both Democrats.
“Given this time of transition, we are not only seeing tensions by voters but we’ll see tensions within the party,” Rupp said. “We’ve already seen that in the Pritt candidacy. What power will liberal Democrats have in the Democratic Party, and where will they go?”
Factions could also affect the way the Republicans operate in West Virginia. Even if they assume more and more power over state offices, Republicans could experience power struggles with their most conservative members, represented in the Legislature by the Liberty Caucus.
“Republicans have the Liberty Caucus that, even though they’re winning, poses a threat to that unity,” Rupp said.
9. The Eastern Panhandle
Is the fastest growing area of the state where elections will be decided from now on?
Yes.
Mostly.
Mooney and Morrisey have taken plenty of criticism for moving to West Virginia not long before running for office. But they made homes in the Eastern Panhandle where newcomers are not uncommon.
Mooney is now up against Democrat Mark Hunt, a Kanawha Valley lawyer and longtime legislator.
Morrisey is up against Reynolds, who is emphasizing his own home-grown roots and blasting Morrisey as a Patrick-come-lately.
But Eastern Panhandle residents, many of whom are from elsewhere, might not get with that vibe.
“That’s the future of the Panhandle,” Rupp said. “You people in Charleston, you’re in trouble there. This Panhandle is going ahead, when you elect an Attorney General and a Congressman. Added to this internal fight, there’s also a geographic fight for the state.”
And if the Eastern Panhandle continues to gain people and power, will West Virginia’s coal issues remain dominant?
10. Last stand of the Blue Laws
Voters in at least 18 counties will be deciding whether to allow for earlier Sunday alcohol sales times at local bars and restaurants.
Meanwhile, voters in nine West Virginia counties are deciding whether to allow Sunday hunting.
Blue laws are designed to enforce religious standards, and West Virginia has just a couple of them left.
Bonus: The end of election season (for now)
Election season ends today — at least until mid-terms in 2018.
On Election Day, polls open statewide at 6:30 a.m. and close at 7:30 p.m.
MetroNews Decision 2016 coverage begins at 7:06 Tuesday night on radio stations across the state and at wvmetronews.com. We’ll have reporters at Justice and Cole election night headquarters.